Net Zero Australia Project to launch new report on the nation’s decarbonisation progress

The Net Zero Australia Project will release its second major report, Australia’s Progress to Net Zero by 2050, tomorrow (11 December 2025) at the Net Zero Australia Annual Conference. The report provides an independent, evidence-based assessment of whether Australia is on track, off track, or at risk across the key dimensions required to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

Drawing on new modelling and sector-by-sector analysis, the report evaluates the scale, pace, and effectiveness of Australia’s current decarbonisation efforts, identifying encouraging progress as well as critical gaps that require urgent action.

Key findings

The report highlights several areas where the nation is on track to a decarbonised future, including:

• Large scale battery deployment is advancing rapidly. Projects are being built and the pipeline suggests there will be more than 4 times the storage capacity added annually over the next five years.
• Strong household battery uptake, which is set to play a major role alongside Australia’s expanding rooftop solar capacity.
• Electricity transmission projects are being developed at a scale aligned with doubling the national transmission network by 2050. Deployment speed will be the key test.
• Significant projected job growth, with modelling showing an additional 100,000 workers in the energy sector by 2050, leading to roughly a tripling of energy sector employment from today. Whilst employment related to coal-fired power generation declines, job creation in renewables, gas-fired power generation, energy networks and several others lead to net employment growth.

However, the report warns that several major components of the transition are at risk, including:

• Slow emissions reductions outside of land-use changes and electricity generation.
• Sluggish investment and deployment of wind, solar and other, enabling infrastructure. The wind and solar pipeline to 2030 needs to roughly double current levels, yet annual build rates are plateauing. Amongst others, EV charging infrastructure development is lagging, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) is inadequate.

• Rising real energy prices, which risk constraining the ability of households and industry to participate in the transition.

The report also identifies two areas that are genuinely off track:

• Land sector abatement, particularly through reafforestation and regenerative agriculture, may need to scale up by a factor of roughly 100.
• Firming gas generation capacity, with the current pipeline insufficient to ensure reliability as coal retires.

Commentary

Professor Michael Brear, from the University of Melbourne, said the report aims to provide clarity, and not alarm:

“Australia needs a clear understanding of what is progressing well and where urgent attention is required. We simply ask what is on track, what is off track, and what is at risk relative to our own assessments of the net zero task, as well as the assessments of others.”

Associate Professor Simon Smart, from the University of Queensland, highlighted the risk of slowing investment:

“Investment in wind, solar and enabling infrastructure is simply not happening fast enough. Design and approvals have become real bottlenecks. Recent reforms to environmental approvals are a step in the right direction, but much more is needed.”

Professor Chris Greig, from Princeton University, stressed the urgency of action in difficult sectors:

“Land sector abatement and firming generation are currently off track, and these are not optional components of a net zero system. We need CCS, large-scale reafforestation, regenerative agriculture, and a much bigger commitment to firming gas generation to drive decarbonisation and maintain reliability.”

Launch event

Australia’s Progress to Net Zero by 2050 will be officially released on 11 December 2025 at the Net Zero Australia Annual Conference. The conference will bring together leading researchers, industry partners, policymakers and community representatives to discuss the report’s findings and Australia’s pathway to net zero. Register for the Conference, subscribe for updates and announcements, or visit www.netzeroaustralia.net.au for further details.

Media contact

Net Zero Australia spokespeople are available for interview on request.

Anita La Rosa
Institute Manager, Melbourne Energy Institute, University of Melbourne
M: +61 405 035 355 E: anita.larosa@unimelb.edu.au

ABOUT THE NET ZERO AUSTRALIA PROJECT

The Net Zero Australia (NZAu) Project is a partnership between the University of Melbourne, the University of Queensland and Princeton University. It illustrates net zero pathways that reflect the boundaries of the Australian debate, for both our domestic and export emissions. Our purpose is to help individuals, communities, companies and governments appreciate:

• the scale, complexity and cost of the net zero task;
• different ways in which the future could unfold;
• how we all might contribute to the required changes; and
• how unintended consequences might be avoided and negative impacts reduced.

The NZAu Project aims to be technology neutral, evidence driven and non-political.

The NZAu Project is overseen by a Steering Committee comprised of senior academics and independent members. A distinguished Advisory Group also provides independent advisory to the Project and includes nominees from the Australian Conservation Foundation, the National Farmers Federation, the National Native Title Council, the St Vincent de Paul Society Australia, other independent nominees by the Project Steering Committee and nominees from our financial supporters.

The NZAu Project has and will continue to consult widely with our Advisory Group members and many other stakeholders but is independent of them all. The NZAu Project therefore does not purport to represent the positions of any of our Advisory Group members or our financial supporters or imply that they have agreed to our methodologies or results.

The NZAu Project acknowledges the financial support from the APA Group, the Australian Pipelines and Gas Association (APGA), EnergyAustralia, the Future Energy Exports Cooperative Research Centre (FEnEx CRC) and Iberdrola Australia.

The NZAu Project Steering Committee

Prof. Michael Brear, FTSE FCI FIEAust, University of Melbourne
Dr. Chris Greig, FTSE, Princeton University
Assoc. Prof. Simon Smart, The University of Queensland
Prof. Belinda Wade, The University of Queensland
Prof. Kathryn Mumford, University of Melbourne
Mr. Richard Bolt, FTSE, Independent Member

Related publication: Topical Report #1, Updated Net Zero Pathways for Australia