The cost of Australia reaching net zero emissions
A statement by the Steering Committee of the Net Zero Australia Project
STATEMENT
The Net Zero Australia (NZAu) Project is a partnership between the University of Melbourne, The University of Queensland and Princeton University. It illustrates net zero pathways that reflect the boundaries of the Australian debate and is the most comprehensive study of its kind undertaken to date.
Different individuals and groups have been misrepresenting key cost estimates from the NZAu Australia Project as ‘the cost of Australia reaching net zero’. These misrepresented costs have typically ranged from $1.5 trillion to $9 trillion. The Steering Committee of the NZAu Project team is releasing this Statement to again clarify our findings on this matter.
The most up-to-date analysis from the NZAu Project was presented to the public on 24th September, 2025 in our Topical Report #1, Updated Net Zero Pathways for Australia:
www.netzeroaustralia.net.au/publications
Slides 40-45 of this Topical Report presents in some detail the projected costs of decarbonising Australia’s domestic energy system by mid-century, with the following noted.
- Using the total costs of achieving net zero by 2050 (the NZ 2050 Scenario) relative to the total costs of continuing to maintain the energy system without targeting any decarbonisation (the REF Scenario), slide 41 of this Report finds that ‘the cost of Australia reaching net zero’ is approximately $300 billion, with all annualised energy costs falling as a fraction of the projected GDP and discounting reducing all these costs further.
- Slide 44 shows that total energy costs vary significantly between average residential, commercial, industrial and transport energy consumers as net zero emissions is approached. It is therefore incorrect to attribute all costs of decarbonisation to all Australians equally. Some sectors and individuals will pay more or less for energy in the future, as they currently do.
The misrepresented costs that typically range from $1.5 trillion to $9 trillion likely originate from an earlier NZAu Project Report that was released on 19th April, 2023:
www.netzeroaustralia.net.au/phase-1
For example, Slide 36 of the ‘Final Results Presentation Pack’ presented on this date shows that cumulative capital investment for both the domestic and export energy systems can be up to about $9 trillion out to 2060. However, these projections assume that current levels of energy export are substituted with zero-emission energy carriers, which is a major assumption and may not eventuate. Further, these projections are not indicative of ‘the cost of Australia reaching net zero emissions’ for two main reasons.
- The large majority of this capital investment should be underwritten by overseas customers and not by Australians. These investments won’t occur if our export customers do not pay for them.
- Operating costs and fuel costs are additional to capital investments and are most significant in fossil-fuel intensive energy systems. Considering only capital investment therefore understates total costs, particularly for existing systems that feature substantial fossil fuel use.
The NZAu Project’s commitment to sharing our inputs, methods and results openly remains, and we welcome further discussion with anyone who wishes to use our work.
Net Zero Australia spokespeople are also available for interview on request.
ABOUT THE NET ZERO AUSTRALIA PROJECT
The Net Zero Australia (NZAu) Project is a partnership between the University of Melbourne, the University of Queensland and Princeton University. It illustrates net zero pathways that reflect the boundaries of the Australian debate, for both our domestic and export emissions. Our purpose is to help individuals, communities, companies and governments appreciate:
- the scale, complexity and cost of the net zero task;
- different ways in which the future could unfold;
- how we all might contribute to the required changes; and
- how unintended consequences might be avoided and negative impacts reduced.
The NZAu Project aims to be technology neutral, evidence driven and non-political.
The NZAu Project is overseen by a Steering Committee comprised of senior academics and independent members. A distinguished Advisory Group also provides independent advisory to the Project and includes nominees from the Australian Conservation Foundation, the National Farmers Federation, the National Native Title Council, the St Vincent de Paul Society Australia, other independent nominees by the Project Steering Committee and nominees from our financial supporters.
The NZAu Project has and will continue to consult widely with our Advisory Group members and many other stakeholders but is independent of them all. The NZAu Project therefore does not purport to represent the positions of any of our Advisory Group members or our financial supporters or imply that they have agreed to our methodologies or results.
The NZAu Project acknowledges the financial support from the APA Group, the Australian Pipelines and Gas Association (APGA), EnergyAustralia, the Future Energy Exports Cooperative Research Centre (FEnEx CRC) and Iberdrola Australia.
The NZAu Project Steering Committee
Prof. Michael Brear, FTSE FCI FIEAust, University of Melbourne
Dr. Chris Greig, FTSE, Princeton University
Assoc. Prof. Simon Smart, The University of Queensland
Prof. Belinda Wade, The University of Queensland
Prof. Kathryn Mumford, University of Melbourne
Mr. Richard Bolt, FTSE, Independent Member
Media contact
Anita La Rosa
Institute Manager, Melbourne Energy Institute, University of Melbourne
M: +61 405 035 355 E: anita.larosa@unimelb.edu.au
Related publication: Topical Report #1, Updated Net Zero Pathways for Australia
